OddsBay

Deciphering Some Early Line Moves in College Basketball

Florida v Brigham Young

Learning the logic of line moves will improve your overall handicapping of college basketball games. During any weekday, the board is full of tempting selections. From the titans to the smaller schools, spreads are available from the early hours of the morning. What one wants to focus on are the universities that are not brand names. So no Fighting Irish, Kentucky, or Louisville for your consideration in this learning venture. We want to focus on why the number has moved on schools were ability and not loyalty are bet on.

Scenario #1 Hammering a Deficient Line

In the rush to be first on the market, some Vegas sportsbooks and offshore outlets will float a line to let them know where they are at. Take for example a marginal top 25 school like Old Dominion at Marshall. The initial offering was at -7. Low and behold the line jumped to -10 three hours later. Now there are two reasons why such a jump could happen. The first is that the onrush of cash was so much that it caused a correction of monumental proportions. While this could be the case, a three point jump is a rarity. The other is that another major book set out its one line which varied greatly from your own. This was the case as the bar at -10 was set across the street. Now the originator of the line decided to follow suit and defer to the -10. This is not an uncommon occurrence especially with the Mid-majors. Get a feel for situations when they take to the road with a particular focus when the conference season is in swing to get maximum value from this type of poaching.

Scenario #2 Upward Goes Steam

Consistent steady movement from the opener is more indicative of a mandate from the early and sharp funds. This means that the opening number was ripe to be plucked. This is especially the case when the squad is a perennial top twenty five titan. The game Arizona (7) at Oregon is one such case. At -5, the Wildcats made tiny leaps towards – 6 ½. This means that there is an imbalance of wagering and that the books are trying to correct so that they are not overly exposed. Homework on this will greatly improve your conference wagering with a focus on the Power Five schools. Even if you do not decide to tail on this steam, a few moments the next day examining why they were or were not correct will pay off dividends even when your bankroll does not have the chance to grow.

By looking at the live basketball odds on breaks during the day, one can get a feel for what type of games will be the most likely to move. Afterward, a couple moments of your attention will confirm or deny your impressions. Take what works and change the rest. Even without wagering on that event, you come out a winner by increasing the skills that bring you joy and money. You are on your way to becoming a better handicapper.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *