Manual Tweaks to Established Formulas


An art to linesmaking comes when the established mathematics can not cope with a hot team.  In the NBA, those that set the basketball betting lines have to deal with Atlanta and Detroit in some pattern defying runs.  How can they craft a new formula for addition by subtraction?  Josh Smith is gone and this team suddenly is hitting their shots from every old junction.  Meanwhile, Atlanta rolls on and people take notice.  The Hawks will be railed until they lose.  However, set the bar too high and the sharps with deep pockets swarm on you.  With this in mind, let us peer in on a college team on such a hot streak that their totals are continually being adjusted downward.

Presenting the Stifling Defense of the Utah Utes

Utah has climbed to the top of the Pac-12 power ratings and for good reason.  Blowouts in their first three games featured a suffocating defense.  So much so that their team defensive efficiency metric plummeted to nearly the level of the national leaders, Kentucky.  The problem comes in with the short term against their overall season performance.  Those three games were their latest but also were all at home.  The quandary comes in as to what weight this should be given and the amount of deviation from your normal math.

Arizona State

The formula and totals they use can be approximated by several sources online.  129 was the number for the total of the game on Thursday night for when Utah travels to Arizona State.  Now they can stand pat but by doing so they realize that are at potential risk.  Therefore, they dropped the total to 124 and was instantly bet up to 126 ½.  Now here is where your experience as a handicapper can let you exploit this situation.

Your advantage is that they have to set lines for all the games.  They give this a few moments thought while you can ponder this for as long as you like.  I have examined this and come up with the following determination.  The adjustment downward while correct for balancing wagers on each side is fundamentally wrong for an individual wager.  ASU has a center that can expose the Utes in the middle.  Now on the road, their defense is so effort intensive that this is an ideal letdown game.  Finally, the better team should seek to increase the offensive pace.  Utah is the better team and should actually try to just outscore ASU. Therefore the over up to 130 and maybe a tad higher is definitely warranted.  Good fortune to all.

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