Polarization of NFL Playoff Odds Part One


An important idea to keep in one’s mind is that all NFL odds are not created equal. Every game has totals, spreads, and money line odds but they are not meant to be perfection in handicapping the game. First and foremost, they are a buffer meant for the protection of the sportbooks. After many decades, patterns in the way people bet have forced them to skew lines in order to reduce being overexposed on a certain result. Here at OddsBay, we will look at what factors change them and begin to prepare on how to eliminate certain areas of spreads from our consideration.

Marriage Vows

While a man’s eye will stray from time to time, our hearts are pretty steady in their focus. For the sports entertainment wagerer, our wallets run the risk of divorcing money when the NFL playoffs come around. During this time, the linesmakers have learned the psychology of the brand name from grocery stores. The foods we love as kids are the ones that tend to be both impulse buys and the ones we tend to overpay for. The Packers, Patriots, and Broncos all hold nostalgia from past performances and have fans all across the nations. These loyalists will pound their teams in the big games no matter what the number might be. Books realize this and inflate the spread on the get go. A few sharps might nip at them on the opposite moment but this is of little concern when trying to hold back the ocean with these franchises. Knowing that the line is imperfect up to three points in these circumstances means all the difference to those wishing to hone their art.

Dome Teams

No other team is quite as easy to handicap as these. It is not because of the iron clad results but because you have a greater chance when reducing certain wagers. Take a team like the Detroit Lions at 8-4. Should this team make the playoffs, their mental makeup and past performances are more polarizing than most. Often faced with road games, the Lions are comprised to either pull the upset win or get steamrolled off the field like they did in New England earlier this year. With spreads from the +3 to +9 region, a person should focus more either on the Detroit ML for the home run jolt or the opposition giving under ten points. Their loses are dramatic and once in a while they will get that upset. It took even a superior team like New Orleans or Indy with Manning years to overcome this rep.

In part one of this series, we looked at two of the more recognizable methods to avoid leaks in your playoff prediction patterns. Brand names cost you extra juice in the long term and force you to be correct so much more often. Dome team should rarely be counted on to cover spreads when they are on the road. If you must wager on them, the risk to reward money line is so much more preferable. Part Two will examine the Bengals, their chances, and if they can finally alleviate the stigma of a regular season choker with Andy Dalton sinking their ship.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *