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Polarization of NFL Playoff Odds Part Two

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Polarization heading towards the playoffs works best with teams that are renown for disappointments. Dome teams like the Detroit Lions at home pour it on or typically go all the way and get upset. Last week’s Thanksgiving game saw just that as the Lions overcame a strong Bear’s start to blow them out and cover. In part two, we will look at Andy Dalton and his Bengals. His quirks and the franchise’s reputation for choking makes it much easier to handicap this one than most games this weekend.

The Heat is Off

The pack did a favor as all three AFC North teams without a tie lost last week. This has given the Bengals a 1.5 game lead in the division as they host the Steelers (7-5). Ever since Carson Palmer’s knee went Jenga in the playoffs, this team has let it down in pressure situations. Even though it is a key in conference game, the routine of the NFL and not having all the lights on him helps Andy Dalton out more than most quarterbacks. With little holding him back in his head, the spread of -3 is ideal for our polarization purposes.

Askew the Push

Numerous sites allow you access to information on not only what the public thinks but the experts as well on NFL games. Joe Public favors the Steelers plus the points. This is faulty even if it is the correct guess. How so? Well the experts went on the Bengals at 67 percent for two reasons. If Cincinnati wins, they will most likely beat Pittsburgh by a lot. The other reason is that at the three points plus the Steelers allows so many pushes to take place. Plus with the added value of the Steelers ML that wagering on the spread for Pittsburgh loses long term value.

The Steelers have not been underdogs in many games this year.

  • +2.5 vs Ravens and Lost 26-6
  • +3 against Carolina and they won 37-19
  • +2.5 on Browns and Pitt lost 31-10
  • +5 against Indy and Pitt won 51-34

Four games in which Pitt has been the underdog. They lose and do not get close to covering. The games they do cover produce ML wins at better payoffs. So if you want to bet on football and thinking on taking Pittsburgh this weekend, go all the way and take them to win. Otherwise it is the Bengals minus the points because a relaxed Andy is a point producing one.

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