What to do with a Trap Line

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Ever since the movie Star Wars came out, people have had that phrase “It’s a Trap!” rattle through their head when encountering odds that are just too good to be true. While occasionally there is a bad line, most of the time it comes down to a drastic difference of opinion. To illustrate this point, we will examine a line we encountered at AmericasBookie in tonight’s The Ultimate Fighter 20 finale.

Lil Pitbull : Bark or Bite?

There goes a chiseled blonde by the name of Felice Herrig. She is a 9-5 fighter who is in the midst of a 4-1 run as of late. She is the show lady that most promotions dream of. Besides the looks, she has good mic skills and a passable enough fighting game to get gigs. She gets to encounter Lisa Ellis who has more fights and against a better quality of opponent. I was of the opinion that her grappling skills of her were way beyond Herrig’s. Based on all of this, I had my number in mind and it was that Ellis was the favorite.

355 Opposite Direction

Low ad behold, I find that Herrig is a -355 favorite in this fight. I could get +295 on Ellis. Reflexes almost took over and I was about to hit password confirm on my wager. I stopped. What do people know that I do not? Well certainly if one was under the weather, a person on the inside could skew the odds like this. Second is the realization that in a near equal fight that Felice Herrig would get most of the benefit of the doubt. She could be the future and with her style, a near equal fight would be more likely called for her because her style is visually more effective.

So here I am doubting myself in the face of a trap line. When faced with this dilemma, you have to have the self awareness to accurately judge if this is one of your stronger sports you are handicapping. If it is not, money saved is money earned and take whatever the result is as a learning experience. If on the fence or beyond, the +295 is a siren’s call. I made a small wager despite the trappish appearance. Remember, when in doubt go with your gut in reasonable situations despite what the pros say. Good fortune if you decide to tail this and I will be here next week in case you wish to laugh and say I told you so!

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