The NBA’s opening-week odds have been on the board for more than six weeks. OddsBay has recorded those prices across more than 40 sportsbooks since September 9, which makes it possible to answer a simple question with real numbers: how much did the market change its mind about the first games of the season before a single regular-season minute was played?

The short answer is: not much, and only in a few places. Of the 18 opening-week games that most books are pricing, 11 have the same point spread today that OddsBay first recorded. The handful of lines that did move all shifted between late September and October 11, while training camps opened and preseason games were played. That is where the market did its learning.

Lines below are the middle (median) number across the books OddsBay tracks, as of October 14. Dates are when OddsBay first recorded the new number.

Most opening-week spreads have not moved

Opening night looks almost exactly as it did in early September. The Pistons are still 1.5-point favorites at home against the Celtics with a total of 221.5. The Knicks are still 5.5-point favorites against the 76ers, total 231.5. Further into the week, the Raptors (−8.5 against the Bulls), the Thunder (−7.5 against the Nuggets), the Celtics (−2.5 against the Knicks), the Spurs (−6.5 against the Rockets), the Magic (−2.5 against the Hawks) and the Heat (−1.5 against the Timberwolves) are all where they started.

That stability is information in itself. Sportsbooks post early NBA lines from power ratings built over the offseason, and a stable line means nothing in camp or preseason gave them a reason to change those ratings. It does not mean the line is right. It means the market has not yet seen anything that proves it wrong.

The lines that moved

Game First recorded Now When it moved
Hornets at Nets Hornets −4.5 Hornets −2.5 Oct 6
Bucks at Wizards Wizards −6.5 Wizards −5.5 Oct 5
Warriors at Lakers Lakers −4.5 Lakers −5.5 Sep 29 – Oct 7
Cavaliers at 76ers 76ers −4.5 76ers −3.5 Oct 11
Thunder at Spurs Spurs −2 Spurs −2.5 early October
Mavericks at Rockets Rockets −8 Rockets −8.5 early October
Kings at Clippers Clippers −4 Clippers −4.5 early October

Hornets at Nets: the biggest move of the week

Charlotte opened as a 4.5-point road favorite in Brooklyn. On October 6 the middle of the market dropped to 2.5, Brooklyn’s moneyline shortened from about +140 to +110, and the total fell three points, from 225.5 to 222.5. It is the only opening-week game where the spread, the moneyline and the total all moved together, which usually means the market changed its view of the game itself rather than adjusting one price.

The books still disagree. DraftKings has Charlotte −2.5 while FanDuel has −1.5, and across all books the spread ranges from 1.5 to 4.5. Wide disagreement like that is common early in a season and is exactly when comparing prices pays off.

Bucks at Wizards and the post-Giannis Bucks

Washington opened as a 6.5-point home favorite over Milwaukee and is now 5.5, with the Wizards’ moneyline easing from about −236 to −208. OddsBay recorded the new number on October 5, the same week the Bucks opened their preseason. Milwaukee is starting its first season after Giannis Antetokounmpo with a new coach and a younger frontcourt, so this is a game where preseason evidence had more to say than usual. Our Timberwolves at Bucks preseason preview covers what to watch in that frontcourt. Books are split here too: DraftKings still has −6.5, FanDuel −5.5.

Lakers and 76ers: two new rosters, opposite directions

The Lakers moved from 4.5 to 5.5-point favorites against Golden State, with the moneyline going from about −185 to −200. The line bounced between −4.5 and −5.5 from late September through October 7, while the Lakers played back-to-back preseason games against Sacramento with a roster rebuilt around Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves. Our Lakers at Kings preseason preview looked at what those games could show.

Philadelphia went the other way. The 76ers opened as 4.5-point favorites against Cleveland and dropped to 3.5 on October 11, with FanDuel now at 2.5. The moneyline eased from about −179 to −159. The Sixers are fitting LeBron James and Jaylen Brown into a core with Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey, and the market is less sure about that fit than it was in September. See our Knicks at 76ers preseason preview for the lineup questions behind it.

Totals barely moved either

Outside Hornets at Nets, no opening-week total moved more than two points. Jazz at Grizzlies went up from 241.5 to 243.5, Mavericks at Rockets from 227 to 228.5, and Cavaliers at 76ers from 233.5 to 234.5. Suns at Trail Blazers came down a point to 234.5. Early-season totals are hard to price because pace and rotations are still settling, so books tend to leave them alone until real games give them something to react to.

The market gets deeper as tipoff gets closer

Depth matters as much as movement. The opening-week games are priced by 30 to 51 sportsbooks in OddsBay’s records. Games set for October 30, ten days later, are priced by only one to three. Books post their first numbers early, but most wait until the week of the game to join. An early line set by a few books is a much thinner signal than one that dozens of books agree on.

What this means for opening week

Three practical points come out of the data:

  • A stable line is not a confirmed line. Eleven opening-week spreads have not moved in six weeks. The first real test is the first regular-season games, and the biggest adjustments usually come in the days after them.
  • Look where the books disagree. Hornets at Nets, Bucks at Wizards and Cavaliers at 76ers all have a full point or more between major books right now. On those games, shopping between books is worth real money. OddsBay’s Price Finder shows every book side by side.
  • Moneylines move before spreads. In several games the spread held while the moneyline shifted by 10 to 30 cents. If you bet the moneyline, the price matters as much as the team. Our guide to how American odds work explains how to read those prices, and what vig is explains why the same bet costs more at some books.

OddsBay will keep recording every opening-week game through tipoff and into the first two weeks of the season, when the market finally gets real results to learn from. Follow the latest numbers on the OddsBay NBA page.