The Bills and Patriots are AFC East rivals, so they play twice every regular season, once in Buffalo and once in New England. This page tracks how sportsbooks have priced each meeting: where the line opened, how it moved, how far prices differed between books and how the game finished. OddsBay records every price from the first line to kickoff, and we add each new meeting to the record below.

Bills vs Patriots: the OddsBay record

Lines are the median price across the sportsbooks OddsBay tracks. “Open” is the first line we recorded and “Close” is the line at kickoff.

October 4, 2026: Patriots at Bills

  • Spread: Bills −5.5 at open, −7 at close
  • Total: 49.5 at open, 49.5 at close
  • Final: Patriots 29, Bills 26
  • Result: Patriots +7 covered and won outright; the game went over (55 points)
Line chart of the Bills spread before the October 4, 2026 game, moving from −5.5 to −7
Bills spread before the October 4, 2026 meeting, median of the sportsbooks tracked by OddsBay. Final: Patriots 29, Bills 26; Patriots +7 covered; Over 49.5.

December 6, 2026: Bills at Patriots

Upcoming. Compare live prices on the OddsBay price finder.

How the October meeting was priced

Buffalo opened around 5.5-point favorites at home. The line climbed steadily through the week, to −6.5 three days out and −7 on game day, so the market moved toward the Bills by a point and a half and onto the second key number in football. The total stayed at 49.5.

New England won 29–26. The Patriots covered as 7-point underdogs and won outright. Buffalo closed around −335, which implied about a 77% chance of winning, so this was one of the larger upsets in the first five weeks. The teams scored 55 points, over the 49.5 total. Our guides to line movement and implied probability explain both ideas.

Line shopping in this matchup

At kickoff, OddsBay tracked moneyline prices from 48 sportsbooks:

  • Patriots moneyline: from +240 at the worst book to +285 at the best. A winning $100 bet paid $45 more at the best price.
  • Bills moneyline: from −400 to −285. Even on a heavy favorite, the best price returned almost $10 more per $100 than the worst.
  • The spread: 21 books closed at 7 and 14 at 6.5. On a line near 7, the difference between Bills −6.5 and −7 is a full key number.
Chart of moneyline prices at kickoff across sportsbooks: Patriots (won) from +240 to +285; Bills from −400 to −285
Worst and best moneyline prices at kickoff on October 4, 2026, across the sportsbooks tracked by OddsBay.

Our line shopping guide shows how to compare prices, and the vig guide explains why books differ.

What makes Bills vs Patriots different to bet

  • Division familiarity. The teams play twice a year and know each other’s schemes. In the first five weeks of the 2026 season, OddsBay recorded 22 NFL division games: the underdog covered the closing spread in 15 and won outright in 12. In non-division games, underdogs covered 25 of 53. Twenty-two games is a small sample, so treat this as context, not a system.
  • Key numbers. In the 79 NFL games OddsBay recorded in the first five weeks, 3 was the most common final margin (15.2% of games) and 7 the second (10.1%). When a line sits near 3 or 7, the half point and its price matter. Our point spread guide covers the basics.
  • Big favorites in division games. When one team is favored by a touchdown or more, the moneyline on the underdog becomes a common bet. Compare prices carefully: on long underdogs the gap between books is largest in dollar terms. Our moneyline guide explains how to read these prices.
  • Wind and cold. Both stadiums are open-air, and the December meeting can bring wind off the lake in Buffalo or cold in New England. Check the forecast on game day. See our guide to over/under betting.

What to check before the next meeting

  1. Quarterbacks and injuries. Confirm who is starting and which key players are out.
  2. Weather. For outdoor games, check the wind forecast for game day.
  3. Where the line sits relative to 3 and 7. Note what each half point costs.
  4. Prices across books. Compare the moneyline, spread and total on the odds comparison before betting.
  5. Your bet against the close. After the game, compare the price you took with the closing line. Our guide to the closing line explains why.

More NFL division matchup guides

Betting responsibly

Rivalry games attract emotional bets. Decide your stake in advance (our guide to bankroll management shows how) and treat betting as entertainment. If gambling stops being fun, help is available: in the United States, the National Problem Gambling Helpline is available 24/7 by calling or texting 1-800-MY-RESET.

Key takeaways

  • The Bills and Patriots meet twice every regular season as AFC East rivals.
  • In the October 4, 2026 meeting, the spread moved from Bills −5.5 to −7; the Patriots won 29–26 outright and the game went over 49.5.
  • The Patriots moneyline ranged from +240 to +285 across 48 books at kickoff.
  • On lines near 7, check whether books are at 6.5 or 7 before betting.

Frequently asked questions

How often do the Bills and Patriots play?

Twice every regular season, once in each city, because they are in the same division. They can also meet in the playoffs.

Who won the last Bills vs Patriots game?

The Patriots won the October 4, 2026 meeting 29–26 in Buffalo as 7-point underdogs. This page is updated after each meeting.

Why does it matter whether the spread is 6.5 or 7?

Seven is the second most common margin in the NFL. A favorite at −6.5 wins the bet on a 7-point win; at −7 that result is a push.